Iran vs Saudi Arabia War Scenario

Iran and Saudi Arabia are crucial players in the Middle East. Both countries have been fighting for hegemony over the Middle East for so long. Explore more about Iran vs Saudi Arabia war Scenario in this article.

An article published by the Wall Street Journal revealed that the Arabian intelligence agency has warned the US agency against the possible Iran attack. Saudi agency claimed that Iran is preparing for a huge attack on Saudi and Saudi forces are on high alert. It has also demanded the US set its forces in the Middle East on high alert. Based on the warning, many neighboring countries have set their security agencies on high alert as well. The White House acknowledged these threats and assured its support to Saudi Arabia only if it pledges to serve the US interests.

Why is Iran threatening Saudi with a huge attack?

In September, a 22 years old Iranian girl named Mahsa Amini was found dead in police custody. Mahsa was detained by morality police for violating set dress codes. Her death triggered huge protests across the country turning the protests into a large revolt. Over 200 people died and around 1000 demonstrators were arrested by the government. This situation has posed a severe challenge to Iran’s internal stability. Iran says that some ‘foreign powers’ are instigating the situation to exploit this volatility in Iran. It has alleged that Saudi Arabia, the US, and Israel are inflaming the situation. “Iranian Revolutionary Guards Chief Hossein Salami warned Saudi Arabia” in stern words “to control its media outlets” or else be ready to face the music.

Saudi Media Coverage of Protests in Iran

Actually, an alleged Saudi-backed media outlet was actively covering this turmoil of Iran in London. Quoting Iranian Intelligence Minister, Reuter said that if Saudi continues these claims, Iran may lose patience. Iran even said that if these hostilities continue, then it will definitely retaliate. And in doing so, the glass palaces of Saudi Arabia will be shattered following everlasting instability in the country. Apart from that, Iran was also attacking Kurdish separatist groups in northern Iraq in the same line with dozens of ballistic missiles and armed drones. Both of the countries exchanged heat speeches. Ironically, when the Wall Street Journal published about these possible attacks, Iran forcefully denied it, but Iran cannot be trusted. It is because Iran targeted Saudi’s oil giant company ARAMCO in 2019. Seeing Iran’s internal instability, it can launch attacks to divert its public attention.

The other side of the coin

In the last few years, the relations between the US and the Middle East have been destroyed rapidly. The US has exploited the Middle East for so long. Saudi and its decades-long relationship with the US were based on a simple premise: oil in exchange for security. During the recent governments in the US, these relations have faced a decline. Obama’s administration signed a nuclear pact with Iran. Donald Trump ignored the Iranian attack on Saudi infrastructure in 2019. If the Ukraine war had not broken out, Biden’s government would have also ignored Saudi-US relations.

The US now paying attention to ameliorating this relation, but Saudi is not interested now. Ignoring the USA’s demands, Saudi cut down the oil production with OPEC+ countries. The first beneficiary of this decision is Russia and the USA is not happy with it. Riyadh is in a Saudi-first mood. Any type of renegotiation is not going to fulfill the USA’s expectations outrightly. As far as Iran is concerned, there are slim chances of any nuclear deal. Iran is further tilting towards Russia for its safety in case these nuclear talks are failed.

The stance of both countries regarding the Ukraine War

In the Ukraine war, both countries, Iran and Saudi Arabia supported Russia directly or indirectly. Saudi supported Russia in reducing oil production and Iran supported providing drones to Russia. And this is providing a stage where Iran and Saudi Arabia can also repair their relations. Both countries have been putting efforts to normalize bilateral relations. They also organized 5 rounds of talks in Baghdad. Iranian Supreme Leader talked about the re-opening of the Iranian embassy in Saudi Arabia.

Could it be the US’s tact to regain influence in the Middle East?

Experts suggest that after playing under the US for decades, Iran and Saudi want to act independently in the region. Iran and Saudi are crucial elements of this multipolar Middle East realm. The West is looking for more innovative and effective ways to regain its influence in the region. Some analysts are of the view that these attack predictions can also be one of the innovative ways of the US.

Food for Thought

Corona pandemic and the Ukraine war have already affected the global economy. The recession can be seen in every part of the world. If a war breaks out in the Middle East, it would have the worst impact on the global economy. Historically it is proven that any development in the Middle East has grave ramifications for the world. The stakeholders have to understand that this war is not a sustainable option for anyone.